IBM Continues To Win Over Investors

April 28, 2019

Introduction:

 

International Business Machines (IBM) continues its long turn back to growth, focusing on high-value faster growing business segments while embracing the future of technology with AI and hybrid cloud architecture via the Red Hat acquisition. Investors are ostensibly being appeased with the blended approach of M&A, realigning it business mix to current and future trends, maintaining its dividend payout and continuing to buy back shares until the Red Hat acquisition closes. IBM’s stock has been on an upward trend after investors decided to move past its initial displeasure of announcing its RedHat acquisition when shares were sold-off and traded down to ~$108. IBMs executive leadership has set the growth and value narrative and investors are quickly realizing the value that Red Hat brings to the table while washing away fears that IBM overpaid for the $34 billion acquisition. From the $108 dip, IBM has been in a position of strength and has broken out past $140 after its recent Q1 2019 earnings. Long-term imperatives are beginning to bear fruit in emerging high value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will augment its transition away from its dependency on legacy businesses to the future of hybrid cloud, artificial intelligence and analytics. IBM presents a compelling investment opportunity with a 4.5% dividend yield, share buyback program and continuously acquiring companies to drive the business into the future.  

      

Q1 2019 Earnings – Solid

 

IBM reported Q1 earnings that were solid, not great and investors seemed content. IBM reported EPS of $2.25 and revenue of $18.2 billion which was a -4.7% year-over-year decline while missing analysts’ targets. IBM slide initially the following day however quickly arrested that decline to rise above the $140 again. The company laid out its growth narrative and Red Hat acquisition catalysts. IBMs revenue was flat across most of its business segments however its Cloud revenue grew by 10%.

 

"In the first quarter, our cloud revenue growth accelerated, and we again grew in key, high-value areas in Cloud and Cognitive Software and in consulting,” "IBM’s investments in innovative technologies coupled with our industry expertise and our commitment to trust and security position us well to help clients move to chapter two of their digital reinvention."

Ginni Rometty, IBM chairman, president and chief executive officer

IBM has slipped back into a revenue contraction in its last few quarters however I think there’s a lot to like moving forward. There’s reassurance that the dividend is safe, stabilizing revenues and a lot of shots on goal for future growth especially with Red Hat coming into to fray and strategic imperatives becoming a larger segment of IBM’s overall revenue pie as this is a higher growth business (Figure 1).

 

 

 

Figure 1 – Highlighting IBM’s business segments mix

 

Blockchain Conspicuously Missing:

 

A potential growth driver that seems to be conspicuously missing from the earnings slides and discussions for future revenue is blockchain. I think IBM has a new frontier of growth in the nascent blockchain technology as the company is a first mover in this promising, emerging technology. IBM’s enterprise blockchain solutions will be a substantial growth engine for the company as more companies adopt this technology. Blockchain has the potential to penetrate the $2 trillion in global payments and $1.8 trillion global supply chain. Recently, healthcare has come into the equation as another huge addressable market. IBM has partnered with CVS Health's Aetna and other insurers on a blockchain network to cut healthcare industry costs. The companies will use the network for processing claims and payments and for maintaining a directory. Anthem, Health Care Services and PNC Bank are also involved with the project.

 

To this end, IBM is offering the first enterprise-grade blockchain platform for permissioned networks and is aggressively stepping into the enterprise blockchain solutions space. Any company looking to employ blockchain technology will likely leverage a company like IBM for the blockchain infrastructure as it’s a first-mover in the space and Juniper Research ranked IBM as the top blockchain company in the world with 40% of surveyed tech executives and leaders ranking IBM as their preferred blockchain service provider. IBM is well positioned as it is the #1 enterprise blockchain partner with greater than 400 projects with world renowned companies across many different sectors involving transactions such as Dow, Walmart, HSBC, Nestle and Visa.

 

Partners in the food industry are Nestlé, Unilever and Kroger. In global shipping, IBM is working with Maersk, Dow Chemical and DuPont. IBM’s blockchain is seeing inroads in the finance industry as well with Societe Generale, HSBC, WeTrade, Unicredit and Santander being top partners. IBM is also working with payment providers like VISA, BBVA, CIBC, EarthPort, and Polynesian payments platform KlickEx.

 

Walmart announced that all suppliers of leafy green vegetables for both Sam’s Club and Walmart must upload their data to IBM’s food safety blockchain solution by September 2019. The IBM Food Trust Solution, which Walmart helped develop, makes the food supply process more transparent and traceable in the event of an illness outbreak. Prior to the blockchain technology adoption, it took roughly a week to trace the source of food and blockchain reduces the time to a matter of seconds, mitigating the risk of tainted food reaching consumers. Albertson’s recently joined IBM’s food safety network as well.        

 

Briefly, Blockchain technology is the architecture that underpins the volatile cryptocurrency markets. This technology is applicable to enterprise applications since it employs a decentralized database, open ledger and incorruptible transactional capabilities. Blockchain is applicable to any transactional business model whether it’s financial or goods being transacted. The open ledger concept within the blockchain makes it incorruptible as any changes need confirmation from multiple parties and any changes can been seen at any time within a permissioned blockchain. As a function of the decentralization, there’s no central repository or clearing house to be hacked or accessed. The blockchain speeds up and by-passes these intermediaries (i.e. clearing house or bank) to achieve transactions within minutes and not days. The distributed ledger within blockchain establishes a shared, irreversible record of all the transactions that take place within the network. The blockchain enables permissioned access to data in real-time. This allows multiple parties involved to collaborate utilizing a single shared view of a transaction.

 

Red Hat Acquisition Closing 2H19

 

IBM acquired Red Hat for $34 billion and investors are beginning to realize the added value this property brings to the table.

 

"The acquisition of Red Hat is a game-changer. It changes everything about the cloud market. IBM will become the world's #1 hybrid cloud provider, offering companies the only open cloud solution that will unlock the full value of the cloud for their businesses.”

 

"Most companies today are only 20% along their cloud journey, renting compute power to cut costs. The next 80% is about unlocking real business value and driving growth. This is the next chapter of the cloud. It requires shifting business applications to hybrid cloud, extracting more data and optimizing every part of the business, from supply chains to sales."

 

- Ginni Rometty, IBM CEO

 

Most notably, IBM says the acquisition will accelerate IBM's revenue growth, gross margin and free cash flow within 12 months of closing. This growth accelerator is a much needed boost to the company’s stagnant growth over the past few years and will drive IBM further into the future of the cloud and where businesses are mitigating to from an enterprise perspective. Red Hat is the world’s leading provider of open-cloud solution and the emerging leader in the platform for hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud. IBM is attempting to reset the cloud landscape via its acquisition of Red Hat and in the process will become the undisputed number one leader in hybrid-cloud which is an emerging $1 trillion market.

 

Companies are moving into the second chapter of cloud where they’re moving away from simple cost synergies/business value to an inflection point of moving all their processes and their data to a hybrid environment. The first chapter was estimated to be roughly 20% of the cloud market and this second chapter is estimated to be the next 80% with hybrid, multi-cloud, open, secure end-to-end in multi-cloud management.

 

Red Hat brings 90% penetration in the Fortune 500 and they are now one of the key foundational technologies of the hybrid-cloud. As clients transition to hybrid and multi-cloud, Red Hat can leverage their large installed base and its open architecture. Hence why Red Hat has emerged as one of the key foundational technologies for hybrid cloud computing. All of this feeds into analytics, data, AI and Watson since all that combined data across these environments needs to be delivered in the secured manner.

 

 

Red Hat – Driving Margin Expansion and Revenue Growth

 

Red Hat will accelerate IBM’s growth and reinforce its high-value model from a revenue growth standpoint and the shift to higher value. Red Hat had been growing revenue at strong double-digit rate and a similar level of backlog growth. Red Hat has high margins and great free cash flow generation. Red Hat will accelerate IBM’s top line revenue growth rate by 200 basis points on a five year CAGR. Red Hat accelerates the business shift to higher value and expands gross profit margin, and free cash flow in year one, and operating earnings per share by the end of year two.

 

From Red Hat perspective, their offerings can now benefit from IBM’s scale and resources to enhance the development and continued improvement of its infrastructure, management, automation solutions and cloud application development. IBM believes that this will bring revenue synergies and clearly stated that it’s not about a cost synergy case, but a revenue growth case because this acquisition is about growth.

 

Conclusion:

 

IBM is continuing to slowly realign itself for future growth with new and emerging end markets while making acquisitions for future growth with a hybrid cloud focus via Red Hat. Red Hat brings its leading platform for hybrid-cloud and multi-cloud with 90% penetration into the Fortune 500. IBM is attempting to reset the cloud landscape via its acquisition of Red Hat and in the process will become the undisputed number one leader in hybrid-cloud which is an addressable $1 trillion market. Red Hat will accelerate IBM’s top line revenue growth and its business shift to higher value with margins expanding and free cash flow generation. Blockchain technology has yet to be broken out as a revenue line item however IBM is a first mover in this promising, emerging technology with partnerships across all industries and recently healthcare. IBM is aggressively stepping into the enterprise blockchain solutions space and it may be a substantial growth engine for the company.

 

Investors are ostensibly being appeased with the blended approach of M&A, realigning it business mix to current and future trends, maintaining its dividend payout and continuing to buy back shares until the Red Hat acquisition closes. IBMs executive leadership has set the growth and value narrative and investors are quickly realizing the value that Red Hat brings to the table while washing away fears that IBM overpaid for the $34 billion acquisition. Long-term imperatives are beginning to bear fruit in emerging high value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will augment its transition away from its dependency on legacy businesses to the future of hybrid cloud, artificial intelligence and analytics. IBM presents a compelling investment opportunity with a 4.5% dividend yield, share buyback program and continuously acquiring companies to drive the business into the future.

 

 

Disclosure: The author does not hold shares of IBM but he does engage in option selling in any of the mentioned underlying stocks or ETFs. The author has no business relationship with any companies mentioned in this article. He is not a professional financial advisor or tax professional. This article reflects his own opinions. This article is not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or ETF mentioned. Kiedrowski is an individual investor who analyzes investment strategies and disseminates analyses. Kiedrowski encourages all investors to conduct their own research and due diligence prior to investing. Please feel free to comment and provide feedback, the author values all responses. The author is the founder of www.stockoptionsdad.com where options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will. Where high probability options trading for consistent income and risk mitigation thrives in both bull and bear markets.

 

Originally published in partnership with INO.com

https://www.ino.com/blog/2019/04/ibm-continues-to-win-over-investors/#.XMXh1uhKjIU

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