Options Simplified


November 23, 2019


CVS Health (CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) have broken out recently due to a pair of better than expected quarters and speculation of being taken private, respectively. These stocks have been beaten down for years with CVS and Walgreens plummeting by 54% ($113 to $52) and 49% ($97 to $49), respectively from their multi-year highs. Over $110 billion in combined market capitalization had been erased from these two companies. As of late, CVS has broken out to the mid $70s and Walgreens has demonstrated strength into the low $60s, well of their respective lows.

The single payer narrative being pushed by presidential frontrunners and the Amazon threat via its acquisitions of PillPack/Whole Foods potentially displacing t...

November 16, 2019


Disney (DIS) just delivered a stellar quarter beating on both the top and bottom line while continuing to roll out its growth initiatives. Disney’s growth rotation is still in its early stages with its remediation of its ESPN property and flurry of growth initiatives to meet modern day media consumption trends via streaming with its Disney+ property. In the backdrop, the company continues to dominate the box office year after year with a long pipeline of blockbusters in the queue, notably Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Additionally, its Parks and Resorts continue to be a growth avenue with tremendous pricing power.

Disney is going all-in on the streaming front and will inevitably acquire full ownership of Hu...

November 10, 2019


2019 has ushered in one of the most surprising bull markets that nearly no one saw coming. The vast majority of Wall Street analysts underestimated the strength of this bull market as we enter into mid-November. Expectations for 2019 were largely muted when factoring in a slew of potentially negative economic issues such as the U.S./China trade war, Brexit, inverted yield curve, potential recession, Federal Reserve actions and the presidential impeachment efforts. Despite all of these headwinds, the indices continue to post record highs with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 notching gains of 18% and 23%, respectively.   

This market has been dubbed the “most hated bull market in history”, illustrating the point that the abili...

November 3, 2019


How can you effectively run an options-based portfolio when trading with a small account? How can you trade options on stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), Facebook (FB), etc., that possess such a high price per share when account balances are limited? People often shy away from options trading due to low account balances. Limited capital doesn’t preclude you from trading options and in fact you can run an effective options portfolio regardless of account size. Options enable you to leverage a minimal amount of capital which opens the door to trading virtually any stock all while defining your risk.

Over the past 13 months, ~315 trades have been made with a win rate of 86% and premium ca...

October 30, 2019


So much for Hasbro (HAS) allegedly having a diverse flexible format supply chain and migrating its legacy supply chain out of China. Per Brian Goldner, “the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail”. Needless to say, the stock sank 17% after reporting its Q3 results. I feel that management was remiss when they forecasted their ability to circumvent the tariffs and then used the tariffs as a scapegoat to justify the company missing its numbers on both top line revenue and bottom line profit. 

With that being said, the company is in a solid state moving into the holiday season, historically their biggest quarter, with blockbusters and the holiday...

October 21, 2019


A year-long case study running an options-based portfolio was conducted in an effort to demonstrate the effectiveness of this strategy against the traditional stock picking approach. Options are a great way to manage and mitigate risk while circumventing market swings. Selling options allows you to collect premium income in a high-probability manner while generating consistent income for steady portfolio appreciation regardless of market conditions. This is all done without predicting which way the market will move since options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go.

Primarily sticking with dividend paying large cap stocks across a diversity of tickers that are liquid in the options market is a great wa...

October 9, 2019


Over the past 12 months, I’ve managed an options-based portfolio and demonstrated how this approach can offer a superior alternative to traditional stock picking. An options-based approach is very similar to running your portfolio like a business where you manage risk and take profits. Alternatively, an options-based approach is much like an insurance company where you sell as many polices as possible to collect as much premium income as possible with a premium cost level that maximizes a statistical edge to your benefit.

An options-based strategy mitigates risk and circumvents drastic market moves. Selling options and collecting premium income in a high-probability manner generates consistent income for steady portfolio ap...

October 1, 2019


AMC Entertainment (AMC) has had a difficult time breaking out of its stock slump, falling ~50% from its 52-week high of ~$20 per share. At these levels, the stock sports a hefty dividend yield of ~7.5% with a healthy balance sheet and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. AMC is pouncing on Movie Pass’ collapse and rolled out its own loyalty program that has exceeded the company’s growth expectations. AMC’s rapidly growing loyalty program now has over 900,000 members to evolve a large segment of its business mix towards a subscription-based model to smooth out box office revenue fluctuations. This will allow durable and predictable revenue streams in the backdrop of changing box office dynamics. AMC is reengag...

September 26, 2019


Previously, I wrote an article putting forth the efficient market hypothesis termed “There's No Edge In Stock Picking” and how less than 10% of fund managers outperform their benchmark over the long-term. These bleak performance metrics and the fact that there’s only a 36% chance that you pick a stock that outperforms the index is what makes options trading so effective.

Whether you want to win 70%, 80% or even 90% or your trades, you dictate your probability of success when it comes to options trading over the long-term. If you set your probability of success at ~85% and make trades at that probability level through all market conditions over the long-term on the scale of hundreds of trades, you’ll end up winning ~85% of y...

September 11, 2019


Those that subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis believe that there’s no edge or advantage when it comes to picking stocks. Thus, stock picking is a binary event and boils down to a 50/50 probability or simply chance. Everything that can be possibly known about a stock is known and all the available information, technical analysis and fundamental analysis is priced into the underlying stock price. The efficient market theory may be the Achilles heel of professional money mangers’ performance and their inability to outperform their benchmarks. A staggering 92% of actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark hence the massive inflows into passive index investing and ETFs. Furthermore, when looking at The R...

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Noah Kiedrowski

Founder: stockoptionsdad.com


I'm Noah Kiedrowski, founder of stockoptionsdad.com. Where high probability options trading for consistent income thrives in both bear and bull markets. Options are a bet on where stocks won't go, not where they go. Enabling investors to mitigate risk and circumvent drastic market moves while generating consistent income in a high probability manner.

The vast majority of my trades are risk-defined while leveraging a minimal amount of capital in order to maximize return on investment. My average income per winning trade exceeds $100. For any given trade I target roughly 10-15% ROI with a delta of ~0.15 or ~85% probability of winning the trade at expiration. In doing so, I typically hold ~50% of my portfolio in cash.

I always strive to trade in high implied volatility environments across a wide array of tickers to maximize sector diversity at an ~85% probability of success. Trading across uncorrelated tickers and maximizing the number of trades is essential for the probability of success to play out.


Did you know that a staggering 92% of actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark? Interestingly, 39% of stocks in the Russell 3000, comprising the largest 3000 companies in the U.S., were unprofitable investments while 64% of stocks underperformed the index. Shockingly, only 25% of stocks were responsible for all the market’s gains from 1983-2006! Taken together, investors only have a 36% chance of picking a winning stock that may or may not outperform the broader index. Options trading provides a statistical edge in trading that individual stock investing simply can't offer.

To this end, stockoptionsdad.com is a venue I created to share investing ideas and strategies with an emphasis on options trading. My aim is to empower investors and traders alike to leverage options trading as part of an overall investment strategy. I offer many tutorials, ideas, strategies, timely trades and actionable updates for the retail investor. My goal is to provide real-life examples of options trading from a peer investor in an effort to demonstrate meaningful portfolio returns while mitigating risk and accentuating returns.



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