Options Simplified

OPTIONS ARE A BET ON WHERE STOCKS WON'T GO,
NOT WHERE THEY WILL GO
WHERE HIGH-PROBABILITY OPTIONS TRADING FOR CONSISTENT INCOME THRIVES IN BOTH BEAR AND BULL MARKETS

January 5, 2020

Introduction:

2019 has shaped up to be an historic year for the stock market indices. The S&P 500 posted its fourth best annual return in over 20 years, coming in at a ~29.5% return. Only two other years have outpaced these 2019 returns. These occurred in 1995 and 1997 posting returns of 34.1% and 31.0%, respectively. 2019 was a unique year on multiple fronts, most notably because the market returns outpaced even the most bullish forecast by any Wall Street analyst. The markets roared higher in the face of impeachment proceedings, U.S.-China trade war, Federal Reserve actions, inverted yield curve and slowing economies abroad. Furthermore, for the first time in history, the U.S. economy has started and ended a decade without a recession...

December 26, 2019

Introduction:

Impeachment proceedings, U.S.-China trade war, Federal Reserve actions, etc., dominate the headlines and move markets in lock-step. The broader indices are at all-time highs and continue to set new high after new high despite the aforementioned variables. The markets have been on a steady rise for months without much resistance and overall volatility remains low, indicating that market participants have become overly confident and complacent. The S&P 500 has had a banner year in 2019, posting a year-to-date return of over 25% through mid-December. A “blow-off” rally may be under way at this market juncture and locking-in portfolio gains while mitigating risk is prudent. An options-based portfolio can offer a superior metho...

November 10, 2019

Introduction:

2019 has ushered in one of the most surprising bull markets that nearly no one saw coming. The vast majority of Wall Street analysts underestimated the strength of this bull market as we enter into mid-November. Expectations for 2019 were largely muted when factoring in a slew of potentially negative economic issues such as the U.S./China trade war, Brexit, inverted yield curve, potential recession, Federal Reserve actions and the presidential impeachment efforts. Despite all of these headwinds, the indices continue to post record highs with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 notching gains of 18% and 23%, respectively.   

This market has been dubbed the “most hated bull market in history”, illustrating the point that the abili...

November 3, 2019

Introduction:

How can you effectively run an options-based portfolio when trading with a small account? How can you trade options on stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), Facebook (FB), etc., that possess such a high price per share when account balances are limited? People often shy away from options trading due to low account balances. Limited capital doesn’t preclude you from trading options and in fact you can run an effective options portfolio regardless of account size. Options enable you to leverage a minimal amount of capital which opens the door to trading virtually any stock all while defining your risk.

Over the past 13 months, ~315 trades have been made with a win rate of 86% and premium ca...

October 21, 2019

Introduction:

A year-long case study running an options-based portfolio was conducted in an effort to demonstrate the effectiveness of this strategy against the traditional stock picking approach. Options are a great way to manage and mitigate risk while circumventing market swings. Selling options allows you to collect premium income in a high-probability manner while generating consistent income for steady portfolio appreciation regardless of market conditions. This is all done without predicting which way the market will move since options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go.

Primarily sticking with dividend paying large cap stocks across a diversity of tickers that are liquid in the options market is a great wa...

October 9, 2019

Introduction:

Over the past 12 months, I’ve managed an options-based portfolio and demonstrated how this approach can offer a superior alternative to traditional stock picking. An options-based approach is very similar to running your portfolio like a business where you manage risk and take profits. Alternatively, an options-based approach is much like an insurance company where you sell as many polices as possible to collect as much premium income as possible with a premium cost level that maximizes a statistical edge to your benefit.

An options-based strategy mitigates risk and circumvents drastic market moves. Selling options and collecting premium income in a high-probability manner generates consistent income for steady portfolio ap...

September 26, 2019

Introduction:

Previously, I wrote an article putting forth the efficient market hypothesis termed “There's No Edge In Stock Picking” and how less than 10% of fund managers outperform their benchmark over the long-term. These bleak performance metrics and the fact that there’s only a 36% chance that you pick a stock that outperforms the index is what makes options trading so effective.

Whether you want to win 70%, 80% or even 90% or your trades, you dictate your probability of success when it comes to options trading over the long-term. If you set your probability of success at ~85% and make trades at that probability level through all market conditions over the long-term on the scale of hundreds of trades, you’ll end up winning ~85% of y...

September 11, 2019

Introduction:

Those that subscribe to the efficient market hypothesis believe that there’s no edge or advantage when it comes to picking stocks. Thus, stock picking is a binary event and boils down to a 50/50 probability or simply chance. Everything that can be possibly known about a stock is known and all the available information, technical analysis and fundamental analysis is priced into the underlying stock price. The efficient market theory may be the Achilles heel of professional money mangers’ performance and their inability to outperform their benchmarks. A staggering 92% of actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark hence the massive inflows into passive index investing and ETFs. Furthermore, when looking at The R...

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Noah Kiedrowski

Founder: stockoptionsdad.com

 

I'm Noah Kiedrowski, founder of stockoptionsdad.com. Where high probability options trading for consistent income thrives in both bear and bull markets. Options are a bet on where stocks won't go, not where they go. Enabling investors to mitigate risk and circumvent drastic market moves while generating consistent income in a high probability manner.

Did you know that a staggering 92% of actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark? Interestingly, 39% of stocks in the Russell 3000, comprising the largest 3000 companies in the U.S., were unprofitable investments while 64% of stocks underperformed the index. Shockingly, only 25% of stocks were responsible for all the market’s gains from 1983-2006! Taken together, investors only have a 36% chance of picking a winning stock that may or may not outperform the broader index. Options trading provides a statistical edge in trading that individual stock investing simply can't offer.

To this end, stockoptionsdad.com is a venue I created to share investing ideas and strategies with an emphasis on options trading. My aim is to empower investors and traders alike to leverage options trading as part of an overall investment strategy. I offer many tutorials, ideas, strategies, timely trades and actionable updates for the retail investor. My goal is to provide real-life examples of options trading from a peer investor in an effort to demonstrate meaningful portfolio returns while mitigating risk and accentuating returns.

 

 

Contact us via email:

stockoptionsdad@gmail.com

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