Options Simplified

OPTIONS ARE A BET ON WHERE STOCKS WON'T GO,
NOT WHERE THEY WILL GO
WHERE HIGH-PROBABILITY OPTIONS TRADING FOR CONSISTENT INCOME THRIVES IN BOTH BEAR AND BULL MARKETS

February 10, 2020

Introduction:

Disney (DIS) just delivered a stellar quarter beating on both the top and bottom line while continuing to roll out its growth initiatives via streaming. Disney’s growth rotation is still in the early stages with its remediation of its ESPN property and flurry of growth initiatives to meet the demands of the modern day media consumption trends. In the backdrop, the company continues to dominate the box office year after year with a long pipeline of blockbusters in the queue. Additionally, its Parks and Resorts continue to be a growth avenue with tremendous pricing power albeit the corona virus will damper its Shanghai and Hong Kong operations. Disney is going all-in on the streaming front and acquired full ownership of Hulu...

December 29, 2019

Introduction:

Baby Yoda and the phase one trade deal comes to Hasbro’s (HAS) recuse after a disastrous Q3 earnings call that resulted in the stock sinking 17%. Per Brian Goldner, “the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail”. I feel that management was remiss when they forecasted their ability to circumvent the tariffs and then used the tariffs as a scapegoat to justify the company missing its numbers on both top line revenue and bottom line profit. Now the backdrop has changed in Hasbro’s favor with the phase one trade deal with China being reached and of course the new internet sensation Baby Yoda.  

The company is in a solid position moving into the holi...

October 30, 2019

Introduction:

So much for Hasbro (HAS) allegedly having a diverse flexible format supply chain and migrating its legacy supply chain out of China. Per Brian Goldner, “the threat and enactment of tariffs reduced revenues in the third quarter and increased expenses to deliver product to retail”. Needless to say, the stock sank 17% after reporting its Q3 results. I feel that management was remiss when they forecasted their ability to circumvent the tariffs and then used the tariffs as a scapegoat to justify the company missing its numbers on both top line revenue and bottom line profit. 

With that being said, the company is in a solid state moving into the holiday season, historically their biggest quarter, with blockbusters and the holiday...

August 31, 2019

Introduction:

Disney (DIS) ran too far, too fast prior to its recent earnings announcement that fell short of investors’ overzealous expectations this early in the company’s transformation. Disney’s growth rotation is still in its early stages with its remediation of its ESPN property and flurry of growth initiatives to meet modern day media consumption trends via streaming. In the backdrop, the company continues to dominate the box office year after year with a long pipeline of blockbusters in the queue. Additionally, its Parks and Resorts continue to be a growth avenue with tremendous pricing power. Disney is going all-in on the streaming front and will inevitably acquire full ownership of Hulu and the company is launching its Disney...

April 14, 2019

Introduction:

Disney (DIS) is looking to continue off of Captain Marvel’s success with Avengers: Endgame debuting April 26th 2019. Captain Marvel has already brought in more $1 billion in worldwide box office revenue and leading all 2019 movies by a wide margin. Disney is betting huge on Avengers: Endgame taking the torch to the $2 billion box office milestone, a feat that’s only been accomplished four times, one of them being Avengers: Infinity War last year with $2.05 billion. All the initiatives that Disney has taken over the previous two years to restore growth appear to be coming to fruition, namely its Fox (FOX) acquisition and its streaming initiatives. The Fox acquisition is complete for the combined entity thus Fox’s assets are...

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Noah Kiedrowski

Founder: stockoptionsdad.com

 

I'm Noah Kiedrowski, founder of stockoptionsdad.com. Where high probability options trading for consistent income thrives in both bear and bull markets. Options are a bet on where stocks won't go, not where they go. Enabling investors to mitigate risk and circumvent drastic market moves while generating consistent income in a high probability manner.

The vast majority of my trades are risk-defined while leveraging a minimal amount of capital in order to maximize return on investment. My average income per winning trade exceeds $100. For any given trade I target roughly 10-15% ROI with a delta of ~0.15 or ~85% probability of winning the trade at expiration. In doing so, I typically hold ~50% of my portfolio in cash.

I always strive to trade in high implied volatility environments across a wide array of tickers to maximize sector diversity at an ~85% probability of success. Trading across uncorrelated tickers and maximizing the number of trades is essential for the probability of success to play out.

 

Did you know that a staggering 92% of actively managed funds do not outperform their benchmark? Interestingly, 39% of stocks in the Russell 3000, comprising the largest 3000 companies in the U.S., were unprofitable investments while 64% of stocks underperformed the index. Shockingly, only 25% of stocks were responsible for all the market’s gains from 1983-2006! Taken together, investors only have a 36% chance of picking a winning stock that may or may not outperform the broader index. Options trading provides a statistical edge in trading that individual stock investing simply can't offer.

To this end, stockoptionsdad.com is a venue I created to share investing ideas and strategies with an emphasis on options trading. My aim is to empower investors and traders alike to leverage options trading as part of an overall investment strategy. I offer many tutorials, ideas, strategies, timely trades and actionable updates for the retail investor. My goal is to provide real-life examples of options trading from a peer investor in an effort to demonstrate meaningful portfolio returns while mitigating risk and accentuating returns.

 

 

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